Phony Happiness

We are not very good at predicting what will make us happy, and sometimes, we’re even dead wrong.

I recently interviewed positive psychology professor, Dr. Wendi Gardner, who emphasized that we are bad at predicting what contributes to our happiness.  I was surprised.  Don’t we know ourselves better than that though?  Aren’t we the smartest creatures on the planet?  Surely we know what will make us happy and what won’t…right?!

Here are a few examples that shed light on whether or not we truly know what makes us smile.  Scientists asked college freshmen on Monday how much they would enjoy eating ice cream on Friday (1-10).  Then on Friday, they gave them ice cream and asked them how much they enjoyed it (1-10).  The results might surprise you.  The predictions of enjoyment showed very little correlation with the reality of enjoyment. We are very bad at predicting how much we’ll enjoy a simple thing like ice cream.  This example shows us that we are not the best happiness-oracles when it comes to ice cream, but that is a trivial example.  Let’s raise the stakes.

In our interview, Dr. Gardner shared a compelling study that asked participants how much happiness talking to a stranger on the subway would bring them.  People predicted that this would decrease their well-being.  The scientists then forced these same people to strike up a conversation with a stranger on their morning subway commute.  At the end of the day, the scientists asked these same people to assess their well-being.  You probably already have an inkling of what the results were don’t you?  Compared to a control group, those that were forced to talk to a stranger in the morning were significantly happier at the end of the day.

There are three compelling takeaways from that study.  First, talking to strangers makes us happier, who knew!  Second, not only were people bad at predicting what would cause their happiness, they were 180 degrees wrong.  What they thought would make them miserable, in fact, made them happier.  Third, the happiness created by talking with a stranger was measured at the end of the day, meaning that the benefits of this simple exercise lasted all day.

I think if we look at our own lives, we can see a lot of examples of this principle in action.  This morning, I went to a 2 hour meditation.  As I woke up early to honor this commitment, I did not feel like getting out of bed early, driving an hour, and sitting still for 2 hours.  I predicted more misery than wellness from this idea.  But I was committed to attending, so I went, and I had a phenomenal time.  I enjoyed it, benefited from it, connected with community, felt calm and serene, and connected to myself and reality.  I’ve meditated thousands of times, and thousands of times I have benefited.  And yet, I usually don’t want to do the practice, often thinking to myself, “what is the point of this useless exercise!”  Despite thousands of experiments both scientific and personal that point to the benefits of meditation, I am still often predicting that it will cause me misery.

Try the exercise on for size.  Are there things in your life that bring you happiness that you often predict won’t?  Or next time you ride the subway, will you talk to a stranger?  You might recoil from the suggestion as you read it.  Does that seem awkward and strange?  Won’t it be more comfortable and happy to mind your own business?  Despite the fact that the science is clear on the matter, our human tendencies resist.  Talking to strangers on the subway tends to make us happier, even if we don’t feel like it will.  This principle applies to more than ice-cream or subway chats.  

This principle applies the other way too - we often predict happiness from destructive activities. Most of us do things that we have already concluded are not in our best interest.  People will tell you that social media shorts are ruining their attention span, something that they hold dear, while scrolling Instagram.  Self-defeating behavior is complex, but part of the issue is that our brain’s lousy predictive software tells us that behavior-x will bring us happiness even when our rational brain has concluded, perhaps many times over, that behavior-x is actually self defeating.

If you’re still reading, you’re probably at least somewhat convinced that we could be better at predicting the causes of joy in our lives.  So what do we do about it?

Awareness has to the be first step.  If we think that our brain is always right about what will and won’t bring us happiness, we are liable to be suckers for the trap.  Now that we know that our brains are often wrong when it comes to predicting our happiness, we can more readily counter that tendency.

To counter our misleading happiness predictions, I think it is necessary to get real about the effects of our choices.  For example, whether I feel like it or not, meditation has a 99% hit rate for contributing to my wellness.  Whether I feel like it or not, tobacco has a 99% hit rate for detracting from my happiness.  These conclusions have been validated time and again by both science and my personal experience.  What has helped move the needle the most on my behavior, however, is something I call personal science.  Here’s a simple description of how it works: 

1. I notice my predictions about how behavior-x will effect me.  

2. I do behavior-x

3. I take stock of how doing that thing effected me. 

The results of this kind of personal science are illuminating.  When step 1 and 3 say something different, I know my prediction was inaccurate and I can adjust going forward.

My best solution is a commitment to implement the insights of personal science over habitual proclivity.  In other words, paying attention to how my decisions actually pan out, and then trying my best, to implement what I learn.  When I can align my emotional preference with the truths of personal science, then I have a recipe for sustainable behavior change.  

When I discover that talking to strangers on the subway makes me happier, then I want to intend to do it more, even if my brain is telling me it won’t be any fun.  As you do more of this, I realize the truth that it makes me happier, and then I like it more.  The Flip of Discipline occurs, and I start being emotionally attracted to the idea.

Likewise, I can learn from when the product under delivers on its marketing.  Juul claims their product is “intensely satisfying.”  Sometimes my brain make a similar pitch.  The reality for me couldn’t be more different.  Nicotine produces a repeating loop in my brain that is anything but satisfying!  Really paying attention to what I’m getting, and comparing my prediction (the marketing) with the reality of my experience (the product) is liberating.  It’s harder to keep fooling me if I’m paying attention.  Then it clicks, the prediction around behavior-x is sometimes simply wrong.  The reality doesn’t match the promise.  It is now far easier to stop behavior-x.

I think it takes some humility to even look at the pursuit of happiness in this light.  I think we are much more naturally inclined to assume that our ego has the hook up and knows just what will set us up right.  In reality, we are often fooling ourselves about the true causes of our joy.  To get more of what matters most, we must get clearer on the truth, reflect on the real effects of our behaviors, and then do more of what actually works.